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KENYA ELECTION – Odinga as the winner

11th August 2022/0 Comments/in News /by Hywel George

Odinga as winner

‘Baba the 5th’/ 5th time lucky/ 5th times a charm

Third time lucky is not always enough. Sometimes you must try again and again.

Such has been the case political bridesmaid Raila Odinga – next president of the Republic of Kenya? – surely

His first attempt on the top job dates back 25 years to 1997.

He came close 2007 and 2017. Now Odinga can finally claim victory – surely.

Raila’s own vote-counters and strategists were happy to claim Azimio’s presidential victory by midday on Wednesday the 10^th – the day after the election.

Twitter and other social media sites showed him finishing over 700,000 votes clear of his nearest opponent, William Ruto.

Signs have been pointing to an Odinga victory – in part because Ruto’s team could not present the similar claims, all-be they speculative.

But Kenyans and international observers alike have been extremely wary of disinformation.

So a major celebration has been held off until the IEBC release the official result.

That in itself has been painstakingly tense, with the two front-runners neck and neck right up to the finish post.

For this election voter turnout is below average for a country that usually hovers around 80%.

We saw it for ourselves at polling stations we visited around Kilifi North.

Enthusiasm was predicted to be low. But turnout was lower than expected. All four candidates failed to mobilise the youth, a demographic that makes up the majority the Kenyan population.

Assuming Uhuru Kenyatta’s mantle, Raila Odinga will face considerable challenges.

Among them high youth unemployment.

He must also wrestle with a tough economic climate and bring an end to corruption.

But has the so-called ‘old man’ got the fight left in him for these challenges?

Raila’s manifesto is built on 10 key points. These are the key elements.

He wants a Kenya which overcomes poverty, ignorance and disease.

He wants to put manufacturing at the heart of Kenya’s economic strategy.

He claims he’ll support micro, small to medium sized enterprises (MSMEs).

He promises to invest heavily in agriculture.

And he’s offering a $60/month basic income for the country’s poorest.

The plans are ambitious from a 77-year-old political veteran.

But a cost-of-living crisis in part caused by external factors may scupper any progressive growth and redistribution.

Kenya is also said to be teetering on the edge of a debt and borrowing crises which Odinga has promised to address.

With Odinga a winner the next few days will be defining.

If there’s violence, Kenya could be plunged deeper into crisis.

But if the country remains calm we may see a nation more progressive, less corrupt, richer and more cohesive during the coming term. Many Kenyans I’ve met are hopeful of the latter.

OS 11/08/22

KENYA ELECTION – voter confidence gone

11th August 2022/0 Comments/in News /by Hywel George

voter confidence gone

Election day arrived – Kilifi town was filled with anxiety and optimism.

Change is here – whatever it brings.

We attended polling stations across Kilifi North, humbled, initially, by the crowds heading to the ballot box. Each voter hoping for a positive future for their community and country.

Queues, at the start of the day, were extensive, caused by problems with the new biometric voter-registration machines.

Edna, an IEBC presiding officer at Majaoni Primary School, told us that the machines were temperamental. Across the constituency, we heard similar reports.

Despite long waiting times in the heat, people were determined to vote. At Bahati primary school, I spoke to Frankie who told me that he had been queuing for two hours – he expected to be waiting at least another hour.

This did not stop others patiently joining the back of the line to exercise their democratic right.

But the crowds thinned. By mid-afternoon the polling stations were largely deserted.

On an election day like this, people go and vote early to avoid potential unrest or violence later in the day.

Low voter turnout is unusual in Kenya. At Mnarani Primary School, a presiding officer told us that, at 3pm, they had only had 25% of their registered voters, and anticipated to have about 60% by closing time.

But at Takaungu Primary School, they had less than 50% of their registered voters by 5pm – 30 minutes before closing.

Evance

Evance, an election observer from HURIA (Human Rights Agenda), claimed people were dissatisfied with the system.

“Many people decided in the last election that they would never vote again… they felt democracy was not achieved.” He said.

In 2017, Raila Odinga disputed the election results. The IEBC ordered a rearranged vote. Odinga withdrew from the second round, which left president Kenyatta with a landslide victory, bagging 98% of the second-round vote. But in 2017, there was an 80% turnout of the first round, the rearranged election only saw just 38% at the poling stations. Many believe they saw democracy fail then and would not put their faith in it again.

Perhaps this explains this year’s poor turnout.

Other officials claimed that fewer young people are voting because they do not feel they benefit from aging politicians.

Despite a 2019 consensus showing 75% of the Kenyan population is under 35, less than 40% of those registered to vote in 2022 are young people.

Disenfranchised youth and disappointed adult voters plays badly for faith in democracy and political institutions.

Whether Raila or Ruto is crowned this year remains to be seen – but either will have work to do to repair the damaged trust of Kenya’s citizens.

GH 10/08/22

KENYA ELECTION – Uhuru’s legacy

9th August 2022/0 Comments/in News /by Hywel George

Uhuru’s legacy

The streets have been quiet in Kilifi. Shopkeepers closed their stalls and the beaches have been deserted.

Uhuru Kenyatta

Campaigning is over. Politicians can no longer endorse a candidate. Polling companies jobs are done for another five years.

Uhuru Kenyatta leaves his post with a nation in the middle of a cost of living crisis, high youth unemployment with the threat of ethnic violence.

Jumo Kenyatta

The son of the first President Jomo Kenyatta, Uhuru used his name to rise to the top of political tree, elected president in 2013 and again in 2017.

His supporters will say that Kenya has come a long way – hailing achievements such as exploding infrastructure investment, his Building Bridges Initiative (BBI) and his overall management of the economy as highlights of his 10 year reign.

Infact, the Jubilee Party leader is allowed to boast of having built more roads than the previous 123 years of governments before him.

strong support for Odinga

It’s a result of heavy borrowing and potential debt traps from Chinese firms. But the public now has access to another 11,000 kilometres of road, drastically reduced travel times and easier opportunities to trade and do business.

But not everyone’s a fan. Griot’s East African Director Eric Kimori said many feel Uhuru has failed to tackle corruption, with perhaps the longest shadow being. Cast across his own government and maybe even over his presidency.

It is estimated that Kenya is losing roughly two billion KES a day through corruption and illicit financial flows. A failure even the president has acknowledged, stating ‘’the devil of corruption is still alive and well here’’.

But, others say he is working to rectify these problem by endorsing former rival Raila Odinga to be his successor. He claims running mate Martha Karua will not ‘’give corrupt leaders and looters a chance’’.

Once bitter opponents, Raila and Uhuru came together in 2018 to attempt to put an end to ethnic tensions across the country in what was known as ‘The Handshake’ – the start of Kenyatta’s Building Bridges Initiative.

Critics argue his support for Odinga and Karua has more to do with his loathing of his current deputy William Ruto.

Ruto’s ambition and perceived lack of humility has seemed a trigger for the incumbent.

Kenyatta’s time in office has not been perfect, even by his own adminission, but it has made long strides towards a modern, connected Kenya. It has addressed some areas of health care provision and brought peace and stability.

But it’s not time to count his legacy. The new man in office will have to build on what has been started and the benefits of the Uhuru years will have to be judged then.

OS 09/08/22

KENYA ELECTION – Odinga as the winner